What Worked, What Didn't? - Revisiting Summer '18

Back in October, we released a 2 part series chronicling the Red Wings' many player acquisitions and departures over the 2018 offseason, following a disappointing 2017-18 season. As the Wings head toward another disappointing season out of the playoffs, we will revisit these trades, draft picks, and free agent signings, and render a verdict on each move to see what the fruits of a busy offseason really were.

May 2018

To Detroit: Maroon, Pitlick, Batherson
To NJ: Armia, Hanzal, Jordie Benn
Verdict: Slight win. Maroon and Pitlick both regressed this past season and were flipped by the Wings before either one played a game, but Batherson had a phenomenal rookie AHL season and showed that his NHL ceiling is sky high. Armia and Benn put together solid seasons, but Hanzal basically fell off the earth. 

To Detroit: Chris Kreider
To Chicago: Joey Anderson, Rasmus Asplund
Verdict: Win. Kreider was signed to a 4 year 4.6M extension and tied a career high with 28 goals this season. Anderson played 34 games in the NHL at age 20 but had minimal production. Asplund had a solid 41 points as an AHL rookie. In the MRFHL 

June 2018

To Detroit: Erik Gustafsson
To Colorado: Platzer, 2019 4th, 2019 5th
Verdict: Massive win! Erik Gustafsson seemed to turn a corner in his career last season as a 26 year old and proved that he was an NHL defenseman, so the Wings decided to take a flier on him... and were rewarded with a ridiculous 17 goal, 60 point breakout season- 6th among all NHL defensemen! This kind of late-career breakout is almost unprecedented so it will be fun to see how Gustafsson follows this up. 

To Detroit: Fowler, 2019 4th
To San Jose: Craig Smith, Grzelcyk, 2019 2nd
Verdict: Slight loss. Fowler seemed like a solid acquisition but struggled as a Wing and has already been traded. Smith is a cheap, productive player for the Sharks, Grzelcyk is a solid young defenseman that continues to take strides, and 2nds are ideal trade currency.

To Detroit: Evander Kane (2.1M retained), 2018 5th
To Arizona: Zetterberg, Batherson, 2019 2nd
Verdict: Draw. Kane tied a career high with a 30 goal NHL season and has been a fairly productive Red Wing. Zetterberg has struggled as a Coyote, and has helped the team tank to a likely bottom 5 finish. However, Batherson looks like a top end prospect and that 2019 2nd is likely to be a top 40 pick.

To Detroit: Viktor Olofsson
To Anaheim: Erik Cernak
Verdict: Slight loss. "Somehow Erik Cernak has been traded by the Wings 3 times in his young career, and I'm sure he is fully prepared to be re-acquired and moved again in the future." Prophetic words by this very publication back in October. Cernak has since been re-acquired by the Wings after a monstrous NHL rookie season. This soon-to-be 22 year old fought Zdeno Chara, threw 198 hits in 58 games, and had a +25 rating! As an AHL rookie Olofsson managed an impressive 30 goals and 63 points in 66 games and added on 4 points in 6 NHL games.

To Detroit: Wolanin, 2018 4th
To Winnipeg: Maroon, 2019 5th
Verdict: Slight win. Wolanin managed 12 points in 30 NHL games after torching the AHL as a rookie. He has since been traded by the Wings but this kid easily has top 4 upside. Maroon is a steady 3rd line player that chips in around 30-40 points on a cheap contract, but will be UFA this summer. 

To Detroit: Matthew Peca
To Chicago: 2018 3rd
Verdict: Loss. GM Evans hoped for a breakout season from Peca after dominating the AHL last season, but he only got into 39 games this season and managed 10 points. His struggles were apparent in training camp and he was flipped before ever suiting up for the Wings.

To Detroit: Greg Pateryn
To Washington: Geertsen, 2019 4th
Verdict: Win. Pateryn is a solid bottom pairing defender with good size and defensive skills. He's been solid for the Wings and signed a cheap 4 year extension. Geertsen seems destined to be a career AHLer.

To Detroit: Couturier, Donato, Jagr, 2018 4th
To San Jose: Getzlaf, Bailey, Wolanin, Pitlick
Verdict: Win. Couturier has been one of the few bright spots on the Wings this season and is on a sweetheart contract, and after a late-season breakout Donato was used to acquire Tomas Hertl. Getzlaf and Bailey have been solid 2nd line contributors for the Sharks on good contracts but haven't lit it up. Pitlick is a good, cheap bottom 6er. Wolanin looks like a good young defender.

To Detroit: 2018 5th
To Anaheim: Jagr, Broadhurst
Verdict: Win. Jagr is about 15 years past his prime and it showed this season, plus he is retired in the NHL. Brodhurst stalled out in the AHL. This move helped the Ducks hit the cap floor at least.

To Detroit: Nic Hague 
To Buffalo: 2018 2nd, 2018 3rd
Verdict: Win. Hague had a great AHL rookie season (13 goals, 32 points, +31) and was used by the Wings to acquire Tomas Hertl. Getting Hague without giving up a 1st looks like a big win at this point but it's too early to determine what kind of NHLer he will be.

To Detroit: 2018 5th
To Carolina: Chimera
Verdict: Win. The Canes are the worst team in the MRFHL and it's not Chimera's fault... but he hasn't helped either.

Draft: 
Mason Appleton: Average pick. Bit of a reach in late round 2 but clearly an NHL player with scoring upside.
Alex Kerfoot: Amazing pick! Followed up 43 point NHL rookie year with 42 points as a sophomore. Traded for a 2020 1st.
Axel Andersson: Average pick. Solid year in a good league (Allsvenskan), but didn't produce points. Shooting for 2020 WJC team.
Rudolfs Balcers: Great pick. 14 points in 36 NHL games this year. Not just a 1-way player.
Niklas Nordgren: Good pick. Injuries derailed a solid season, so didn't stick in Liiga all season and didn't play WJC.
Lawrence Pilut: Great pick. Torched the AHL and earned an NHL call-up, but didn't produce in the NHL. Top 4 OFD upside.
Christian Djoos: Good pick. Won a cup last season. Solid bottom pair NHL D but has upside for much more.
Jayden Halbgewachs: Average pick. Up-and-down AHL rookie year for the diminuitive winger. Remains risky.
Michael Lindqvist: Bust. Left AHL to rejoin his SHL team. Unlikely to ever make the NHL now.
Ville Meskanen: Bad pick. Mediocre AHL season. Already an older prospect.
Jordan Gross: Average pick. Solid AHL rookie year, has some NHL potential but low ceiling.
Adam Ruzicka: Good pick. Solid OHLer, participated in WJC for his 3rd straight year. 3rd line NHL potential.

July 2018
To Detroit: UFA rights to Eaves
To Edmonton: MacEwen
Verdict: Loss. Eaves has been a total zero with the Wings and his NHL career seems to be over after a rocky recovery from Guillain-Barre Syndrome; a tragic end to an eventful NHL journey. Zack MacEwen was a total beast in the AHL and even managed to get into a few NHL games. He looks like an ideal bottom 6er

UFA:
Alex Edler, 1 year 8M: Bad signing. Just didn't click with Karlsson for whatever reason. Great NHL season. Traded to TB
Michael Raffl, 2 years 1.15M: Average signing. Hasn't played much for the Wings but solid bottom 6er on a cheap deal.
Dom Moore, 1 year 0.55M: Good signing. Veteran 4th line C on a minimum contract. Traded to TB
Louis Domingue, 1 year 1.25M: Great signing. Had a great NHL year. Promising young backup goalie... Also traded to TB
Chris Wideman, 3 year 1.25M: Meh. Wideman played for 3 NHL teams and 2 AHL teams this year. Rough break, maybe not an NHLer.
Harri Sateri, 3 years 0.86M: Meh. Bad year in the AHL after a great one the previous year. Still some NHL potential.
Kevin Boyle, 4 years 0.9M: Good signing. Strong 5 NHL games, mediocre AHL season. NHL potential. Traded to ANA
Oscar Fantenberg, 1 year 1.35M: Good signing. Played 62 NHL games this year, but only 4 points. Low ceiling.
Vinni Lettieri, 4 years 1.05M: Good signing. Point per game in the AHL but hasn't translated to NHL yet. Likely bottom 6er
Mike Vecchione, 3 years 1.05M: Bad signing. Took a step back in the AHL. Unlikely to reach NHL. Dumped to MTL.
Spencer Foo, 3 years 0.925M: Bad signing. Took a step back in the AHL. Unlikely to reach NHL. Dumped to MTL
Ryan Haggerty, 1 year 0.65M: Meh. Took a step back in the AHL. Unlikely to reach NHL.
Radim Simek, 2 years 0.95M: Good signing. Played 41 NHL games, but had a season-ending injury. 4/5D potential.
CJ Suess, 2 years 0.85M: Bad signing. Played 26 AHL games due to injury concerns. Some NHL potential but unlikely.
Connor Clifton, 1 year 0.65M: Good signing. Played 19 NHL games and has suited up for 2 in the playoffs. 5/6D potential.
Zach Frye, 1 year 0.65M: Bad signing. Buried in the ECHL this year. Unliekly to reach NHL. Dumped to MTL
Eric Robinson, 1 year 0.65M: Good signing. Played 13 NHL games. Traded to MTL for a pick.

August 2018

To Detroit: 2020 1st
To NJ: Alex Kerfoot
Verdict: TBD. Kerfoot had a strong sophomore season but that 2020 1st could be anthing at this point. 2020 looks like a strong draft at the top end, but the Devils are a playoff team this season and could very well be one again next season. Kerfoot for a late 1st looks like a fair deal but if that picks falls in the lottery it could be a major coup.

Summary:
Of the 15 trades reviewed: 9 were ruled wins, 1 TBD, 1 draw, and 4 losses
Of the 12 draft picks: 6 were ruled good/great/amazing, 4 average, and 2 bad pick/bust
Of the 17 UFA's: 8 were ruled good/great, 4 average/meh, and 5 bad

Based on this review, it appears offseason moves were not the culprit for the Wings 2018-19 struggles. Shockingly, nearly every one of the players on both sides of these trades had mediocre or disappointing MRFHL seasons. Many had big NHL seasons and may be primed for bigger things in 2019-20. The Wings unique draft approach last season, targeting players over 20, didn't fully work out as expected. Alex Kerfoot, Mason Appleton, Rudolfs Balcers, Lawrence Pilut, and Christian Djoos all played in the NHL last season, but appear to have relatively lower ceilings than traditional 17/18 year old draft prospects. Kerfoot was a huge success and could end up making the whole approach worthwhile by himself, but the jury is still out on the others. The Wings aggressive quantity-over-quality approach in free agency bore some fruit: Domingue, Boyle, Simek, Fantenberg, Lettieri, Moore, Robinson, and Clifton were all found money, but all project as bottom of the roster type pieces. Getting picks for Domingue, Boyle, and Robinson made the whole exercise worthwhile, but no home runs were hit.

-Detroit Free Press

Tanner Braithwaite

3=====D

What Worked, What Didn't? - Revisiting Summer '18
A look back on the Wings' busy 2018 summer, with the power of hindsight

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